Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
