A mere 60 days in the past that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
