Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
